Thursday's delayed U.S. jobs data for September gained significance after the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics cancelled the October data and moved November's release to December 16 – six days after the next Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision. This change in the schedule for releasing crucial employment data means that market participants will have less time to react to potential shifts in economic indicators prior to the Fed's next meeting, which could influence monetary policy decisions. The data released increased foreign exchange (FX) volatility, as had been anticipated by market analysts. However, it did not significantly alter the probability of a rate cut in December, which remains around 30%. As such, implied volatility, a measure of market expectations for future volatility, has edged lower as market participants price out the risk premium associated with the employment data.
In the currency market, the USD/JPY pair extended its gains that have been building since January, approaching the significant psychological level of 158.00 on Thursday. This movement in the exchange rate comes as intervention expectations have shifted higher to the level of 160.00, indicating an anticipation of potential government or central bank intervention to stabilise or influence currency values. The implied volatility for one-month options surged to 10.7, up from 9.0, indicating increased uncertainty and potential price swings – with the potential profit on a $30 million trade estimated at around $120,000. There was also strong demand for options with a three-month expiry at strike prices between 160.00 and 165.00, with the latter trading volume hitting $1 billion at implied volatility levels between 10.4 and 10.45. The risk reversals in the JPY market show that call premiums over puts are pricing in the risk of intervention, which essentially means traders are cautious about a potential rise in the USD/JPY pair due to anticipated government action, causing these premiums to ease slowly.
In the context of the EUR/USD market, a drop towards the 1.1500 level does not seem to signal imminent trouble for EUR/USD bulls when analyzing the options market. There has been limited interest in hedging against deeper declines in the exchange rate, as risk reversals are retaining a topside strike premium. The implied volatility is currently lower at 6.1, compared to 6.5, indicating a decrease in expected volatility among traders.
Meanwhile, in the AUD/USD market, demand has been met at the previous mid-0.6400 support zone. This support level is helping to alleviate pressure on implied volatility, which has dropped to a benchmark of 8.5 from 9.0, reflecting cautious sentiment surrounding the pair.
Lastly, GBP/USD options are centred around Britain's upcoming budget announcement on November 26, along with any subsequent ramifications. The implied volatility linked to one-week expiry options has increased, reflecting the heightened event risk premium observed since Wednesday. Additionally, there has been consistent demand for options with strikes below the 1.3000 level, suggesting that traders are hedging against further declines in the British pound.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!