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GOLDMAN SACHS US WEEKLY KICKSTART: EQUITY SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST (2027)

Source Document: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (*US Weekly Kickstart*)

Publication Date: October 9, 2026

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### THE TAKE: NET EQUITY SUPPLY EXPANSION WON'T DERAIL BULL MARKET

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research forecasts $600 billion in primary US corporate equity issuance for 2027 (equating to ~0.8% of US equity market capitalization, down slightly from 1.0% in 2026). Corporate equity demand via buybacks ($1.7 trillion) and cash M&A is projected to exceed $2.0 trillion.

When accounting for an estimated $1.7 trillion in expiring lockup shares, net US public equity supply in 2027 is set to register its largest increase since 2000. However, GS strategists do not expect this supply shift to derail the bull market:

* Unlocked shares will not be sold immediately or en masse.

* Capital realized from unlocked share sales historically gets recycled back into equities.

* Solid corporate earnings growth (+11% YoY in 2027) paired with declining 10-Year Treasury yields (forecast to fall from 5.2% to 4.4% by year-end 2027) should sustain robust investor demand.

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### EQUITY SUPPLY & DEMAND BALANCE SHEET (2027 FORECAST)

| Metric / Flow Component | 2026 Estimate | 2027 Forecast | Historical Context & Desk Notes |

| --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Gross Corporate Equity Issuance | $675 Billion | $600 Billion | ~0.8% of Russell 3000 market cap (in line with 10Y average). |

| — Gross IPO Proceeds | $225 Billion | $175 Billion | 2026 was boosted by mega-deals (e.g., SpaceX in June 2026). Number of IPOs rising to 105. |

| — Follow-ons, Converts, SPACs | $450 Billion | $425 Billion | AI infrastructure accounts for ~45% of YTD 2026 follow-on volume. |

| Expiring Lockup Share Value | — | ~$1.7 Trillion | Represents potential free float from 2026 mega-IPOs. |

| Corporate Equity Demand (Buybacks) | $1.5 Trillion | $1.7 Trillion | Driven by non-hyperscaler AI buildout (e.g., NVDA's $150B buyback program expansion). |

| IG Debt Issuance (Credit Model) | — | $2.4 Trillion | Hyperscalers funding ~35% of $1.2T capex via debt rather than equity. |

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### KEY THEMATIC & MACRO HIGHLIGHTS

* Hyperscaler Capex & Financing Dynamics:

Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL) are forecast to spend *$1.2 trillion in capex in 2027**, supported by $1.1 trillion in operating cash flow.

Credit strategists estimate ~35% of hyperscaler capex will be debt-funded (*>$400 billion in debt issuance**), creating minimal structural incentive for hyperscalers to issue primary equity.

* Cost of Debt vs. Cost of Equity:

* Recent yield spikes (10Y UST ~5.2%) have narrowed the spread between S&P 500 cost of equity and cost of debt to multi-decade lows.

If yields stay elevated, equity issuance becomes relatively more attractive than debt; however, GS base case models 10Y yields declining to *4.4% by year-end 2027**, preserving buyback expansion.

* GS IPO Barometer & Market Breadth Adjustment:

Headline GS IPO Barometer sits at *146** (conducive macro backdrop).

Adjusted for historically narrow market breadth (median stock -17% below ATHs), the Barometer falls to *93**, reflecting temporary friction for smaller issuance ahead of market broadening.