USD On Watch Into ADP Data
USD Softens
The US Dollar is on watch today following the pullback from yesterday’s multi-month highs. Traders will be looking to the latest ADP employment print this afternoon ahead of Friday’s headline NFP data set. On the numbers front, the market is looking for 50k jobs today, up from 22k prior. If seen at this level, the data should confirm the Fed’s recent signal that labour market risks have softened, offering further pushback against near-term rate cut expectations and fresh support for USD.
ADP Due Today
A large driver behind the USD rally this week is the view that a surge in energy prices will create fresh inflationary pressures in the US, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates near-term. Indeed, we’ve seen a clear hawkish shift in market pricing of the Fed rates path with no easing seen now until at least late summer. If the conflict with Iran persists (and particularly if it intensifies), these easing expectations could be pushed out further, leading USD higher again near-term.
NFP on Friday
Looking ahead to Friday’s data, any upside surprises will be firmly bullish for USD near-term, particularly while the conflict with Iran rages on. A solid uptick in Monday’s ISM data suggests the US economy is recovering from the softer ground seen in recent months. While this narrative holds, USD is likely to remain supported with focus on a fresh push higher in DXY.
Technical Views
DXY
The rally in DXY has seen the market breaking out above the bear channel highs but stalling for now into a test of the 99.15 level. With momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 98.24 level with 100.36 the next objective for bulls.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.